IEA publication has been prepared by the Gas and Coal Markets Division (GCM), headed by Dennis Hesseling, who provided useful suggestions and comments throughout the process.
Key points for India:
- For the first time in half a century, coal-fired power generation declined in both China and India in 2025, driven by the huge expansion of renewable energy in China and an early, unusually strong monsoon in India.
- In India, coal production is set to increase by merely 1%, as captive and private mines continue to expand production, while growth in output from the national miner Coal India, the country’s largest coal producer, is expected to moderate.
- A particularly strong El Niño weather phenomenon in 2026 is expected to support coal demand by increasing cooling needs and reducing hydropower output in some major coal-consuming countries in Asia, such as India and Viet Nam.
- In India, 2025 coal production hovered at around 1.1 Bt for a second consecutive year, supported by continued efforts to strengthen domestic supply and reduce reliance on imports.
- Coal demand in China was unchanged at 4956 million tonnes (Mt), while India’s fell by 1% to 1299 Mt. Yet, for the first time in 50 years, both countries generated less electricity from coal than the year before.
- High inventories have started to constrain further expansion: Large pithead stocks and comfortable power-plant inventories reduced the need to accelerate output further, while growing domestic capacity is increasingly displacing imports, particularly among electric utilities and industrial users.
- India and Europe remain the main sources of decline in seaborne thermal coal demand.
