Greater Noida (July 02, 2025): A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape in South Asia
A subtle but strategic shift is unfolding in South Asia’s diplomatic landscape. On June 19, the Chinese city of Kunming hosted a trilateral meeting between China, Pakistan and Bangladesh to explore enhanced regional cooperation.
What makes this more than a one-off engagement is that it follows a similar China–Pakistan–Afghanistan meeting in May. Taken together, these meetings suggest a deliberate Chinese strategy to reshape the regional narrative—without India at the table.
The meeting floated the idea of a new platform—seen by many as a potential alternative to the long-stalled South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The foundations of South Asia’s regional order are being quietly redrawn. While no formal bloc has been declared and no timeline has been set, this was a significant signal.
As China deepens its strategic partnerships with Pakistan and Bangladesh, New Delhi faces an unprecedented challenge to its traditional leadership role. This emerging trilateral cooperation threatens to sideline both India and the already fragile SAARC framework, potentially creating a new center of gravity in regional affairs.
SAARC: Frozen, Frustrated, Forgotten?
SAARC, once heralded as the region’s unifying platform, has become a casualty of geopolitical rivalries has been largely defunct. Frozen since its last summit in November 2014 due to India-Pakistan tensions, this institutional paralysis has created a vacuum that Beijing has been quick to exploit. Despite its founding vision of regional integration, SAARC has failed to deliver on trade, infrastructure or collective security.
China, though not a SAARC member, sees an opening. With strategic and economic stakes across South Asia, it is positioning itself as an alternative convener. From Gwadar to Chittagong, Beijing is building influence—not just through infrastructure, but now through diplomacy.
China’s economic diplomacy through the Belt and Road Initiative has found particularly fertile ground in Pakistan and Bangladesh, with $62 billion committed to CPEC and another $40 billion in BRI projects for Bangladesh alone.
China and Pakistan: A Coordinated Push
For Pakistan, this is a welcome development. With SAARC effectively blocked by India’s vetoes, Islamabad is eager to shift to a platform where it holds equal footing and India has no say.
The China–Pakistan–Afghanistan meeting in May, followed by the China–Pakistan–Bangladesh trilateral in June, appears to be a calculated pattern. Through these quiet trilateral, China is crafting a new framework—region by region.
The Emerging China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Axis
Recent diplomatic activity reveals a coordinated push toward trilateral cooperation:
- China-Bangladesh: Defense agreements and port development projects suggest a strategic deepening beyond economic ties.
- China-Pakistan: CPEC’s second phase expands into industrial cooperation and potentially broader regional integration.
- Pakistan-Bangladesh: A notable thaw in relations, facilitated by Chinese mediation, marks a significant departure from historical tensions.
This developing axis could eventually incorporate Afghanistan under Taliban rule, further consolidating China’s regional influence.
Bangladesh Clarifies: Not a Political Alliance
Bangladesh’s participation at Kunming raised questions in New Delhi about shifting allegiances. However, Dhaka has clarified its intent.
“This is not a political alliance,” said M. Touhid Hossain, Foreign Affairs Adviser to the Bangladesh Prime Minister. “It was a meeting at the official level, not political” he added.
This reflects Dhaka’s long-standing practice of balancing major powers. Bangladesh continues to value its strong relationship with India but is open to economic opportunities from China.
Still, its involvement sends a message: smaller South Asian nations are increasingly open to alternatives as SAARC remains inactive.
India’s Strategic Dilemma
New Delhi faces multiple, interlocking challenges:
- Economic Exclusion: Potential marginalization from emerging trade networks that bypass traditional India-centric routes.
- Security Concerns: China’s growing naval access in the Bay of Bengal through Bangladeshi ports.
- Diplomatic Erosion: The steady dilution of India’s “neighborhood first” advantage as partners diversify relationships.
The cumulative effect threatens to reduce India’s regional primacy at a time when China’s influence is peaking.
India’s Strategic Test: Reassert, Don’t React
India is still the region’s largest economy and most stable democracy. But regional leadership must now be earned, not assumed. New Delhi’s strategy must combine institutional revitalization with competitive economic diplomacy:
- Elevate Regional Development Partnerships: India should fast-track infrastructure, energy and trade projects in Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. New Delhi must match China’s project implementation speed while offering more transparent financing terms, particularly in digital infrastructure and renewable energy sectors. Implementation—not promises—will define trust.
- Rejuvenate Alternative Frameworks: India must strengthen forums like Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA),where Pakistan is not present and India enjoys greater influence. BIMSTEC remains India’s most viable regional alternative, but requires urgent progress on the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and finalization of the long-pending free trade agreement.
- Engage Neighbours with Respect: Bangladesh’s outreach to China is not betrayal. India must remain patient, supportive and constructive in its diplomacy.
- Leverage Strategic Alliances: Quad collaborations can provide neighbors with high-quality alternatives to Chinese investments in critical infrastructure like ports and telecommunications.
- Leverage Soft Power and Cultural Ties: Scholarships, medical aid, technical training and cultural exchanges must become tools of strategic engagement—especially with youth and civil society in neighbouring countries.
- Maintain Channels with China: While India must be firm on issues like border security; it should also keep communication open with Beijing—especially via multilateral platforms like BRICS and SCO.
The Defining Year Ahead
The next 12-18 months will prove decisive for India’s regional standing. Either New Delhi will successfully articulate a compelling vision for cooperative regionalism that balances neighbors’ aspirations with its own strategic interests, or South Asia may gradually transition into China’s sphere of influence.
India’s response must demonstrate that it can be the region’s preferred partner—not through historical claims or coercive diplomacy, but by offering superior solutions to South Asia’s pressing development challenges. The time for decisive action is now.
A Bloc Isn’t Born, But the Blueprint Exists
The Kunming meeting did not birth a new bloc. But it did plant a seed. And it shows how China is quietly redrawing the region’s diplomatic geometry.
India must rise to this moment—not by blocking others, but by building trust, delivering on promises and leading with vision. The region is watching. The test has begun.
About the Author
Mr. Hridaya Mohan (hridayamohan@yahoo.co.in) is a regular Columnist with a renowned Indian daily “The Hitavada”, “Bharat Neeti Media” and some other newspapers / magazines internationally. Superannuated as Executive Director, Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL), he is Senior Adviser, Metallon Holdings Pvt. Ltd. presently. He headed SAIL office at Beijing as Chief Representative (China & Mongolia) for six years. He has published and presented seventeen papers globally. Recipient of “Sir M Visvesvaraya Gold Medal”for one of his papers, “Benchmarking of Maintenance Practices in Steel Industry” from The Institution of Engineers (India), he was awarded with “Scroll of Honour” for the excellent contributions to Engineering fraternity from IE(I), Bhilai, “Jawahar Award” for leadership excellence in SAIL and “Supply Chain Leader – 2017” award from IIMM.
