Timetable analysis and delay forecasting
Wise closely examined train timetables and predicted delays based on a variety of circumstances. He used three main factors to do this:
- Planned engineering work
- Strike action
- Bad weather
Wise found that trains were more delayed before and after strikes and engineering works. In addition, bad weather in winter was also a major cause of train delays. Based on this information, Wise accurately predicted which trains would be delayed and obtained refunds for these.
Artificial delays and the ripple effect
Wise also observed that sometimes, trains were deliberately delayed for repairs or other work on the railway, so that the maintenance work could be carried out on time. He took advantage of this fact and incorporated it into the forecast. Wise’s regular journey from London to Carlisle was delayed by an average of over an hour. During this time, he received a full refund on every journey. Wise explained that “one hour is the golden median,” that is, if the train is delayed by more than an hour, passengers can get the full amount back.
Suggestions for the strategy
Wise shared his strategy and said that this system is best suited for long journeys, where the journey is longer than three hours. He also suggested that this time can be used to do important tasks, so that passengers do not waste their time during the journey.
