Greater Noida (Hridaya Mohan, hridayamohan@yahoo.co.in): Union Jal Shakti Minister CR Patil of India recently stirred the waters of diplomacy with a strong declaration: “Not a single drop of water will be allowed to flow to Pakistan.” The remark has sparked renewed debate on one of the most powerful — and sensitive — levers in India’s diplomatic arsenal: WATER. In a region where rivers are lifelines and history runs deep, such a statement isn’t just political rhetoric — it signals a shift in strategic posture that could ripple far beyond India’s borders.
This assertive posture comes in the backdrop of continued cross-border tensions and calls for tougher, non-military responses to Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism. In a country where water is deeply tied to agriculture, livelihoods and national identity, the minister’s words resonate with public sentiment. But beyond the rhetoric lies a maze of legal, technical and geopolitical realities.
The Indus Waters Treaty: Still Intact, For Now
Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), allocates the six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan. India has unrestricted rights over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — while Pakistan receives the majority flow of the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — albeit with limited Indian rights. India can use the western rivers for “non-consumptive” purposes such as hydropower and irrigation under strict regulations.
Despite wars, terror attacks and diplomatic breakdowns, the treaty has endured — often called one of the most successful water-sharing arrangements globally. But recent political statements suggest that while India may not breach the treaty, it intends to fully utilize its share, especially from rivers like the Ravi, where large amounts of water currently flow into Pakistan unused due to lack of storage infrastructure.
India’s Leverage
Technically, India has not fully utilized its share under the IWT. Several projects on the western rivers have faced delays due to environmental clearances, logistical challenges and bureaucratic inertia. India does have scope — legally and within the treaty — to better utilize its allotted water, which can indirectly reduce flows to Pakistan without violating the treaty. For instance, by expediting storage and hydropower projects like Kishanganga and Ratle, India could send a strategic message.
Legal and Ethical Dimensions
Unilaterally abrogating or weaponizing the treaty would not only attract international criticism but could also harm India’s image as a responsible regional power. Pakistan could escalate the matter diplomatically, possibly even invoking international legal forums, despite the treaty’s self-contained dispute resolution mechanism. India has consistently taken pride in honoring its treaty obligations — breaking that pattern could set a precedent with unintended consequences.
Practical Challenges
Stopping or diverting water is easier said than done. Rivers do not turn corners on command. Diverting large volumes of water requires massive infrastructure, ecological considerations and time. Moreover, such a move could severely impact Indian states like Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab if not handled judiciously.
Strategic Patience and Assertive Diplomacy
Rather than abrupt cessation, India’s best course lies in strategic assertion — accelerating infrastructure to fully utilize its rightful share, pushing back diplomatically against violations and using the treaty’s dispute resolution channels to challenge Pakistan’s objections.
Water is life and weaponizing it can be a slippery slope. But responsible, assertive use of one’s rights under international agreements is a legitimate tool of statecraft.
As India rises on the global stage, it’s handling of the Indus Waters Treaty — whether as a model of restraint or as a signal of strength — will reflect the maturity of its diplomacy.
What “Not a Drop” Could Mean for Pakistan
While India stopping water that belongs to Pakistan under the treaty would constitute a violation — something India has not done — fully harnessing its own share would have serious effects on Pakistan, especially in Punjab and Sindh provinces.
- Reduced Flows in Eastern Pakistan: Rivers like the Ravi and Sutlej, which Pakistan receives surplus flow from, could run dry if India builds adequate dams and barrages. Pakistan has historically used this “extra” water and its loss would impact agriculture, especially in areas near Lahore, Kasu, and Bahawalpur.
- Agricultural Strain: Pakistan is heavily dependent on irrigation. Any reduction in seasonal water availability — even if technically within treaty limits — could disrupt sowing cycles, increase groundwater overuse and cause economic losses in the farming belt.
- Urban Water Stress: Cities like Lahore already face water table depletion. Less river inflow means more reliance on groundwater, which is fast depleting — a long-term sustainability threat.
- Political Pressure on Islamabad: A perceived water “blockade” could inflame domestic politics in Pakistan, trigger anti-India sentiment and compel the government to raise the issue at international forums, possibly trying to portray India as reneging on an UN-registered treaty.
- Security Implications: Water insecurity is a volatile issue. If not handled with diplomatic care, even treaty-compliant water actions by India could be painted as “hydrological warfare” by Pakistan’s political or military establishment.
India’s Strategic Shift — Assertiveness with Caution
India is not talking about breaking the treaty — it’s talking about no longer being passive. Projects like the Shahpur Kandi barrage, Ujh multipurpose project and the resumption of stalled canal works are all legal under the treaty. These steps will stop India’s unused water from flowing into Pakistan — fulfilling the spirit of the minister’s statement without sparking legal breach.
India’s message is clear: Enough goodwill has gone unreciprocated. Water, like security, must be managed with national interest at heart.
Rhetoric Must Lead to Real Change
For decades, India has let strategic water resources slip downstream due to delay, diplomacy or deference. The Union Jal Shakti Minister’s bold “not a single drop” statement, if followed by action, could finally change that.
But alongside that assertiveness, India must manage optics, legality and humanitarian implications. After all, true strength lies not just in making a statement — but in making it stick without setting the region ablaze.
About the Author
Mr. Hridaya Mohan is a regular Columnist with a renowned Indian daily “The Hitavada” and some other newspapers / magazines internationally. Superannuated as Executive Director, Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL), he is Senior Adviser, Metallon Holdings Pvt. Ltd. presently. He headed SAIL office at Beijing as Chief Representative (China & Mongolia) for six years. He has published and presented seventeen papers globally. Recipient of “Sir M Visvesvaraya Gold Medal”for one of his papers, “Benchmarking of Maintenance Practices in Steel Industry” from The Institution of Engineers (India), he was awarded with “Scroll of Honour” for the excellent contributions to Engineering fraternity from IE(I), Bhilai, “Jawahar Award” for leadership excellence in SAIL and “Supply Chain Leader – 2017” award from IIMM.
