New Delhi (Defence Correspondent): The recent tensions between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have escalated to a worrying level for the region. Starting off with a series of airstrike by Pakistan in Afghanistan’s Paktika province, targeting suspected hideouts of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group allegedly responsible for attacks in Pakistan, causing casualties, including women and children, and then Taliban retaliating has left the regional players thinking.
The developments certainly has exacerbated the already strained relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan sparking public outrage on both sides of the border. Not only the escalation underscores the complex dynamics between the two countries, with both sides engaging in violent actions, but it also has led to the risk of destabilizing the region.
Anticipating this, the global community too has expressed concern over a possibility of a larger conflict and beginning of a humanitarian crisis in the south Asian region.
In the light of ongoing disputes in the other parts of the world, it also is being anticipated that this region could possibly replicate what the world has been witnessing for years between Russia and Ukraine or Israel and Gaza.
But among other global players, the most dominant member in the region is India. Now how worried should India be about two of its western neighbours clashing?
Both, in terms of security and regional geopolitics, this dispute between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan hold significant implications for India. What also worries India is that such developments can be a double edged sword for India – one it brings challenges of security and political instability but at the same time India can use the pressure from Taliban to effect its long time rival, Pakistan.
Talking of security, increased instability in Pakistan could retaliate on the India Pakistan border with causes of worry for India rising in terms of military movement. On the other hand, militant outfits like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) may not restrict their territory to Pakistan but may cross over into India.
Other than violence, the situation may also escalate to a level of causing refugees influx into India what exactly India has witnessed since turmoil in Bangladesh and in Myanmar. This leads to causing strain on India’s western border like it has been on the eastern.
But on the other hand, strategically analysing, a clash between the Taliban and Pakistan could weaken Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan regime. This clearly brings out an opportunity for India to enhance its engagement with Afghanistan, in terms of fostering ties through developmental aid and diplomatic outreach.
Additionally, Afghan government being more friendly to India could also counterbalance Pakistan’s influence in the region which India can politically and strategically leverage.
But experts believe, that for now, seeing the rising vulnerability in south Asia given two of its major players getting into military activities, India must tread cautiously.
They say that India’s unplanned involvement in this fiasco may provoke unforeseen hostility from the Taliban. The situation, therefore, demands a nuanced approach, combining robust border security measures with proactive regional diplomacy to safeguard India’s interests.
