New Delhi: India’s draft National Steel Policy sets an ambitious target of 604 million tonnes (mnt) of crude steel capacity and around 530 mnt of production by 2047. If achieved, India could account for approximately 20% of global steel production, assuming global steel consumption grows at 1–1.2% CAGR over the period. India currently contributes around 9% of global crude steel production, based on 2025 output of 165 mnt against global production of 1.85 billion tonnes.
This ambition reflects India’s infrastructure development, urbanisation and manufacturing growth. However, moving from 220 mnt of current capacity to 604 mnt will require capacity additions at nearly 1.8 times the pace achieved over the past decade. The challenge is not just building more capacity, but ensuring efficient utilisation, competitiveness and sustainable returns.
Raw material security will be critical. India has substantial iron ore resources, but better exploration, mining and transportation will be needed. Coking coal remains a major concern, with nearly 90% of requirements met through imports. Rising steel production will also increase demand for manganese ore, scrap and other essential inputs. Domestic resource development, recycling and diversified sourcing must become priorities.
Carbon emissions will need equal attention. Energy-efficient processes, renewable power, waste heat recovery, scrap-based steelmaking and green hydrogen, where commercially viable, can help reduce the industry’s carbon footprint.
India can also strengthen its position in global markets through exports, but success will depend on quality, cost competitiveness and reliable delivery. This requires large capital investments, access to affordable financing, modern technology and efficient rail, port and coastal shipping infrastructure.
The draft policy provides a strong long-term direction. The real test will be execution: building a globally competitive, resource-secure and lower-carbon steel industry that supports India’s economic growth.
